Kuala Lumpur, 15 January 2026: The Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) today released a report that takes stock of the diplomatic and economic responses of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its member states to President Trump’s disruptive tariff policy agenda. The report: Divided We Fall: ASEAN’s Responses to Trump’s Illiberal Trade Agenda recounts the fast-moving developments during 2025 and assesses what policies worked, what policies did not work, and what ASEAN countries individually and collectively should do amid continuing disruption and uncertainty.

ASEAN countries are among the primary targets of President Trump’s punitive tariff campaign, which dominated the trade policy scene in 2025. Threatened tariffs of between 10 and 49% caused alarm among regional policymakers and triggered a range of primarily individual responses that allowed Washington to exploit regional institutional weakness and divisions. Positive aspects of ASEAN’s collective response were overshadowed and undermined by the self-interested actions of individual countries.

Key findings of the report include:

• Tariffs on ASEAN’s major exporters settled at around 20%, near to the global average rate for countries above the 10% baseline. Relative to their initial ‘Liberation Day’ tariff positioning against other Trump targets, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and (minimally) Indonesia are better placed while Malaysia and the Philippines are worse off.
• ASEAN’s collective condemnation of tariffs, calls for constructive dialogue with the United States (US), the establishment of a monitoring and study mechanism, and ruling out retaliatory tariffs were all positive moves to mitigate the potential impacts. ASEAN and its member states also increased efforts to deepen and diversify trade and economic partnerships.
• But most of ASEAN’s major exporters prioritised bilateral negotiation with Washington over regional and multilateral efforts to reinforce open and fair trade. The resulting deals have been lopsided, legitimise punitive tariffs, undermine the multilateral system, and unhelpfully link ASEAN economic policies to US national security interests.
• Reactive and narrowly-focused individual country responses rewarded US coercion not the ASEAN countries that pursued them. ASEAN and its members made some wise choices but were insufficiently urgent in efforts to promote an ASEAN-centred response.
• Looking ahead, ASEAN should act to restore and deepen its centrality, emphasise mutually beneficial partnerships for development, honour its deals with the US and adapt where possible, and prepare for further instability.

“It is impossible to find winners from tariff deals forged under the threat of power projection and for the express purpose of stifling ASEAN’s export competitiveness. But not all deals are created equal and ASEAN need only look to Europe to see the benefits of a united regional response to Trump’s tariffs. ASEAN must concentrate on strengthening collective response mechanisms amid heightened risk of further unpredictable and disruptive policies from the US and elsewhere,” said Dr Stewart Nixon, author of the report and Director of Research at IDEAS.

For more information, please download the report on our website

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